Hype curves and inflated advertising sales figures

Article on TechCrunch about the 2008 Gartner Hype Curve, and where things lie on it.



See that one on mobile robotics - we've been tracking that awhile, I was fascinated to see that Chris "Long Tail" Andersen's other website is on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - or Drones as they are also known. Ditto, we've been tracking behavioural economics and surface computing. There are a number I don't see - open source hardware, various deep algoritms based approaches etc.

I also suspect after this week that Cloud Computing has shortcircuited straight onto the slide into the Slough of Despond . To make matters worse, today the US Patent Office told Dell it couldn't patent the term. we're also dubious about Location services. Apart from that, its fine

The Hype curve's early rise is driven not just by PR and hyperbole pimping New New Things, but by irrational market projections. We can go back over the years and show how various forecasters often hugely over-egg the early day forecasts and recant later, and more quietly. Mobile and Advertising are very susceptible, Mobile Advertising especially so- though not usually as bad as e-Marketers for Web Video advertising this year:

In February, the Web prognosticator said YouTube et al would sell $1.4 billion in ads in the U.S. this year. Now its says it was overzealous: It has ratcheted its estimate back by 64%, to $505 million.

What's happened since then? eMarketer blamed "changes in methodology" at the Interactive Advertising Bureau to MediaWeek. But in his new report, analyst David Hallernan says advertisers remain tentative and still confused on what types of video to buy and where. In other words: You got us.

65% drop in 6 months - that is the best yet, we usually have a 33% drop over 1 year rule of thumb

Update - Speaking of hyping the Cloud, here is one of the more extreme examples - off RWW, strangely. The hyper it goes.....