The Future of Web Apps (FOWA) is.....a lot smaller than the past?

It was very odd being at the Future of Web Apps initially - what was presented on stage had clearly mainly been written before the crashes of the last fortnight, so there was this sense of unreality as geeks talked about cool tech, entrepreneurs pimped dodgy free biz models and booth babes stretched tight T-shirts over well supported racks (not of the server variety).

But then on Day 2 Tim Bray of Sun stepped up to the breach and delivered the Sequoia Sermon ( hit bingo in about 10 minutes) and duly chastized the faithful - who loved the whipping they got (check out the Twitter Feed). And then the news came in of all the Web 2.0 companies taking the opportunity to hack heads without losing face (discussion after FOWA - can Google now afford to throttle down YouTube without losing face?)

Now readers of Broadstuff will know we've been sceptical more than once about the hype that has been heaped on a lot of the Webstuff in recent months, but this is penduluming the other way waaay too fast. But then thats what markets do, they overcorrect.

So, three thoughts here as counters:

1. Markets always overcorrect - it wasn't as good as the hype, it aint as bad as the hopelessness of the Sequoia scenario. What you are now seeing is the VC's et al doing the standard "its raining - we want our umbrella back" thing beloved of financiers everywhere, companies dumping people and stuff they couldn't previously without losing face, and the "citizen media" trying to linkbait with doom n gloom headlines rather than pump 'n pay ones.

2. The Internet is not going away - it is a structural transformation in society that reduces costs, and that sort usually wins. Especially in tough times. Web 2.0 will go the way of all phases in its development - I rather got the impression from FOWA that its got to the top of its S curve (of which more in my next post) but the growth of this whole next generation comms medium is only 10 years old in a 30+ year cycle.

3. They say its easier to start a company in a recession - that is cr*p, its far harder in my experience. But the companies that can succeed in a recession can succeed anywhere, and a lot of the dumb behaviour goes way. And at FOWA Jason Calacanis reiterated something that I've heard Nic Brisbourne says time and again to London startups - if you can get the traction (without giving away the farm of course), you will get the funding

This one is going to be worse than probably anything for a generation (especially as we have to pay up our children's college fees to keep those poor bankers in mansions and mistresses) but being employed in corporate life won't be any picnic either.