Top 11 Strategic Technologies to Watch

Jason Hiner on C:Net has a good "They Say / We Say" piece on the Gartner "Top 10 Technologies to Watch" List (see below):



I am going to copy...er I mean flatter Jason by doing the same:

1. Virtualization

They say: Server virtualization is already in process. Today, the two biggest opportunities in virtualization are in storage and desktops. Storage virtualization offers simplified access by pooling systems and can save big money with storage deduplication. Desktop virtualization allows users to have a portable personality across multiple systems, delivering a thick client experience with a thin client delivery model.

We say: The issue is not in the hardware, it is in the middleware - allowing these systems to operate in an integrated way, especially in the delivery of services and applications. We think the OSS/Provisioning layer for Virtual services is a major issue / opportunity here

2. Cloud Computing

They say: You need to be very careful about all of the hype, but you need to take it very seriously as well. They think 80% of Fortune 1000 companies will be using some form of cloud computing services by 2012. They encouraged IT leaders to consider the back-end infrastructure and policies of cloud providers and to carefully the development models.

We say: The Pay-per-Drink economics are attractive, the reliability and security still have a ways to go. We expect to see hybrid rather than pure Cloud services as an interim step., as the PC inventory is still increasing. Jason noted that " the one reason why a lot of IT leaders will eventually adopt cloud computing: It can allow IT to move a significant chunk of money from capital expenditures to operating expenditures."

3. Servers: Beyond Blades

They say: Blade servers introduced a shared a computing fabric that allowed some recombination of components and some efficiencies. The fabric-based server of the future will treat memory, processors and I/O cards as components in a pool, combining and recombining them into particular arrangements to suit the needs of the server load.

We say: This is just additional evolution of an existing trend, the virtualisation issue is not about the hardware, its about the management of it - ie the Middleware. One increasing issue is/will be heat removal per square foot if systems get any more efficient - it may be necessary to have dispersed systems (higher transmission loss, lower cooling costs)

4. Web-Oriented Architectures

They say: Expect Internet, Web and cloud-based concepts (such as SOA) to increasingly drive mainstream architectures and development models.

We say: As for Cloud - we expect to see hybrids first

5. Enterprise Mashups

They say: Mashups mix content from multiple sources by using feeds from public application programming interfaces (APIs). Enterprises are now investigating taking mashups from cool Web hobby to enterprise-class systems to augment their models for delivering and managing applications.

We say: There is undoubtedly a huge market for free flowing enterprise data - the issue that has to be solved first is getting at the data, and putting it in a form to be mashed up usefully. And the real value is between enterprises in a supply chain, and between enterprise and consumer - which requires even higher levels of open-ness. Barriers to open-ness are not just technical, but organisational.

6. Specialized Systems

They say: Specialized server appliances can save IT time because they are largely preconfigured, but they also are not as flexible and can’t be reused as easily. A new category called heterogenous systems is emerging that offers mix-and-match hardware. Heterogeneous systems are prebuilt and supported by vendors, rather than custom-built by IT departments.

We say: Specialised appliances tend to be an interim stage in a market, between new software ideas and stuff being put "in the knitting" Look at Load Balancing Hardware or XML accelerators for example. At some point these disappear into the standard infrastructure. They are built by for solving a short term problem - and if an outside vendor won't build it, the IT department has to - and we don't see the need for all sorts of these interim systems disappearing anytime soon.

7. Social Software and Social Networking

They say: Your organization is an entity in the broad Social Web. Get to know Facebook, Twitter, FriendFeed, LinkedIn and other social sites and applications. Listen to the language of social media, before starting to speak.

We say: Social Networking has its uses, but can also be a massive time sink - and many (most) of the consumer based, low security, peer based, low criticality systems referenced today do not easily fit into the more hierarchical, secure, critical delivery systems of enterprises. Its a moot point as to who is right, but current enterprises won't buy in bulk until much better ROI cases are made. We expect to see penetration initially around the customer handling end, and internally in more peer based subcultures.

8. Unified Communications

They say: Enterprises are realizing that they have multiple products and vendors performing the same communications functions, and that this redundancy creates additional expense, makes it more difficult for users to learn, and increases the complexity of integration.

We say: There is currently a big divide between desk based and mobile based capability (and systems), and systems have to be run for the weakest link in the chain. UC is undoubtedly a major issue, the key is to have aggregation systems that can glue it together seamlessly (Twitter being a good early example)

9. Business Intelligence

They say: Business intelligence (BI) is one of the most powerful things you can deliver to business decision makers. Even though we’ve all been doing it for years, we’re not doing it very well because too much of the data is stuck in silos. Companies need to get serious and systematic about implementing BI and performance management solutions because they fuel smarter decisions and better results.

We say: It always has been key - the problems these days are often not in getting the data, but in understanding what it means - and internally, getting it to flow without being manipulated by interim stakeholders (The old "Everything is Shit to Garden is Full of Roses" transform applies).

10. Green IT

They say: Consider potential regulations and have alternative plans for data center and capacity growth. Many are looking at energy efficiency or ‘green’ products simply for the practical advantages in energy savings. Some companies are emphasizing green activities as part of their social responsibility. A socially conscious CEO may have funds to support some IT changes that result in a greener company.

We say: In the past, "Green Awareness" hass usually been a feature of "top of boom" conditions, we expect it to decrease as an issue in the next 2-3 years. Not to say we don't think Green is Good, its just that companies are now looking at survival in a market red in tooth & claw - no Green ROI, won't happen. (The ROI could be market image based, but we suspect that pressure will decline now)

And one we'd add.

11. Predictive Systems

Something we don't think Gartner clocked - On the Web, there is a huge amount of data in a closed system, crunching that to predict or influence future activity will be a huge trend. Google et al's Datamining is just the start. Also, intelligently Filtering this datastream will be more important than collecting the data.