The S-Ness of Curves

Fascinating article in The Technium today on the inevitability of Moore's Law and similar tens one of which was the progression of speed curves from 1953 (above):

It is important to remember that in 1953 none of the technology for these futuristic journeys existed. No one knew how to do go that fast and survive. Even the most optimistic die-hard visionaries did not expect a lunar landing any sooner than the proverbial "Year 2000." The only voice telling them they could do it was a curve on a piece of paper. But the curve was right. Just not politically correct. In 1957 the USSR launched Sputnik, right on schedule. Then US rockets zipped to the Moon 12 years later. As Brokderick notes, humans arrived on the Moon "close to a third of century sooner than loony space travel buffs like Arthur C Clarke had expected it to occur."

What did the curve know that Arthur C Clarke did not?

Except, as we now know, in the 1980's it all stopped, as according to the curve we would have serious interplanetary speeds by now. But that curve has pretty much flatlined for 30 years. Which is the lesson of this post, that change does not come in a smooth progressive power law, it demonstrably comes in fits and starts. What is hard is predicting when it starts to flatline....and when the next S curve takes off.

By the way, if you want to play "interesting trends", here's one using Moore' Law for a device like the original basic iPhone

Price in 2007 = $250
Price in 2009 = $125
Price in 2011 = $63
Price in 2013 = $30
Price in 2015 = $15

Now imagine what a device with that power, retailing at c $15, and the size of iPod Shuffle, will do for mobile computing in 6 years time..... or take it on another 2 cycles, what does a $4 device of this power but the volume of a credit card do in 2019?