Twitter to be nearly entirely composed of Social Media Experts by 2013

Sunday, December 27. 2009

Twitter to be nearly entirely composed of Social Media Experts by 2013

Social Media Gurus on Twitter as of December 2009

A fascinating study by B L Ochman shows that:

In May 09 when we first used Tweepsearch to count of the Twitter bios of self-proclaimed social media gurus, experts, superstars and ninjas there were 4,487. A mere seven months later, we were shocked to see that there are now nearly 16.000. They are multiplying like rabbits.

She goes on to break out the 15,740 they found in the chart above.

This represents a 3.5x increase every 6 months. Projecting this growth forward means that there will be nearly 30m Social Media Experts etc on Twitter by this time in 2012, to add to the other disasters in that year (and 100m by mid 2013).

Assuming that Twitter's current growth rate of c 0% on 60m users stays the same in the next 3 years, and that current users churn (ie drop out or become inactive) at a modest 25% per annum, that allows us to calculate that by Xmas 2012 about 50% of all Twitter users will be Social media Experts and by mid 2013 about 80% of them will be. By end 2013 there will be 375m Twitter users, of which 360m will be Social Media Experts of one stripe or another.

Of course, this is assuming current growth rates and these may change over time

Speaking personally, I think anyone who was not on Twitter by end of 2007 has no place in calling themselves a Social Media Guru/Expert/Whatever......

Update - Poor Adam Tinworth retweeted this post and got lambasted for it on Twitter - anyway, he has written the more serious analysis of the issue B L Ochman and I were satirising over here, ie the profusion of charlatans in the field.

Posted by Alan Patrick in Social Networks at 13:48 | Comments (7) | Trackback (1)

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A Prediction: 2010, Social Media & Snake Oil
I made a small mistake this evening. I broke my self-imposed social media exile to retweet something by Alan Patrick, that linked to this post on his blog. And suddenly, I found myself besieged by unhappy social media pros that I respect.There's...

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Nice article - amazing what you can show with mathematics. Re your comment "Speaking personally, I think anyone who was not on Twitter by end of 2007 has no place in calling themselves a Social Media Guru/Expert/Whatever".

Personally I have to disagree - from two angles. (i) Just because someone was not using Twitter in 2007 does not mean they can not be an expert. Just as someone who was, is not automatically an expert. It's like saying "Unless you were watching TV in the 1930s you can't be an expert on broadcast media".

The second angle is more a moral issue - personally I don't believe anyone should be declaring THEMSELVES as an expert/guru in any field. That is a title that should only be placed on them by their peers/audience/community.

Talking about your depth of experience or areas of specialization is one thing - but declaring yourself an expert/guru just seems arrogant to me.

As a consultant I may position myself by offering the benefit of 10+ years of experience in marketing with a specialty in brand development, demand generation, online, interactive and social media.

Am I an expert in Branding? Compared to my mother I certainly am. Compared to Marty Neumeier I certainly am not.

Perhaps a little modesty in Twitter bios would be welcome?

#1 Richard Taylor (Homepage) on 2009-12-27 23:17 (Reply)

Little do they realise that Twitter is nature's way of separating the worthless.

Time will come when the accountants and telephone sanitisers are shipped off world. Guess who will also be along for the ride?

#2 Sceptic on 2009-12-28 02:57 (Reply)

It's Christmas, kthx. Not XMas. And do I spy ChatZilla emotes, there?

#3 Michael MacLean (Homepage) on 2009-12-28 14:11 (Reply)

@ Richard - yes, you and Taylor Davidson have both exposed the glaring hole in my logic

.

@Sceptic - by then nearly teh whole planet will be composed of Social media Experts by my calculations

- The meek will then inherit the Earth

@ Michael - On Twitter, Xmas saves 4 chars and capital M is called fast two finger typing

#4 alan p on 2009-12-28 14:32 (Reply)

Ha, does not surprise me one bit. Seems like when I read someone's profile now days, they all seem to be "social media gurus." Makes me laugh everytime!

#5 Zack (Homepage) on 2009-12-28 16:14 (Reply)

heh! your match skills are much better than mine.
glad to have inspired you!
BL

#6 B.L. Ochman (Homepage) on 2009-12-28 17:31 (Reply)

I need to update my entire CV, BLOG, Twitter, Linked In .....I can turn the lights on which in social-media-world means that I'm an Electrician. oooh, and I've also been known to diagnose myself with a cold...call me Doctor!

#6.1 Karen Connell on 2010-01-15 23:41 (Reply)

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