Lies, Damn Lies and World Cup Statistics

All the angst about England going out in the last 16 of the World Cup has me befuddled, as its exactly what was predicted statistically by its rankings over the last 18 months (Germany has been Top 4 on average, England nudging Top 8 ). Its the same old litany of English football - the British media overhypes the team above what the odds say is plausible, then there is the predictable and inevitable disappointment, the ritual sacrifice of the Manager, the FA Inquest, the Reports, the Burying Under The Carpet, the New Favourite Manager appointed to the hysterical plaudits of the Football press, and the same sad cycle again 2 years later.

(You may be able to lie with statistics, but its a lot easier without them ;-0 )

Anyway, it may be interesting to see what the Prediction Markets are saying about the Last 8. I looked at the Inklings market, mainly because its data is publically visible unlike Yahoo's much heralded Predictor (Note to Yahoo - putting stuff people pay for behind a wall is sensible, but free stuff????)

As you can see in the diagram above, the prediction market is fairly clear about Brazil's probability of winning, and about Spain's. The probabilities for Argentina v Germany and Uruguay v Ghana are far closer. Incidentally, FIFA results largely agree except they place Germany (6th ranked) above Argentina (7th ranked), and Spain (2nd ranked) way above them).

(erratum - I have Spain beating Argentina (FIFA prediction) whereas the Prediction Market has it the other way)

So, thats the prediction market view as of close of play today.....lets see how it turns out.

Update 1 - Holland beats Brazil, totally against the predictions

Update 2 - Uruguay beat Ghana in a very close game by a cynical handball stopping a certain goal. In Rugby that would be a penalty try, game to Ghana. Football is not a "sport", and its laws are an ass.

Update 3 - Germany hammers Argentina 4-0 against prediction

Update 4 - Spain narrowly beat Paraguay 1-0