I'd like to claim we were as prescient in seeing Oracle sue Google over Java infringement as we were in working out that Google would
break out of the Net Neutrality camp, but I can't - we don't really track whats under the hood in mobile OS.
(I suppose in that context we count as dozy bloggers

)
What I can tell say though is that we weren't surprised at all to hear it - as we have written many times, the issue with Open Source and its IP rights is a very tricky area and a potential minefield once it becomes valuable. (see
here and
here for example).
Nor, it seems, were some of Java's original patent holders very surprised -
from eWeek:
In an Aug. 12 blog post on the matter, Java creator James Gosling said:
“Oracle finally filed a patent lawsuit against Google. Not a big surprise. During the integration meetings between Sun and Oracle where we were being grilled about the patent situation between Sun and Google, we could see the Oracle lawyer's eyes sparkle. Filing patent suits was never in Sun's genetic code. Alas....
And Sun didn't survive, gentle beastie that it was.
You hav eto wonder what Google was thinking though - these are not stupid people, surely (we ask) they would have realised that:
Infringings patents + Making a valuable business = Lawsuit
It is, after all, the American way
But I am trying to understand their logic - I can see 3 options:
(i) Ignorance - Google techies build Android on Java patents while high on open source kool aid, not realising patent lawyers drink bitters (possibly based on Sun vibes, but then Oracle buys them....) and pointy headed managers don't realise what's at stake
(ii) Hubris - Google believes no one is smart enough to see what they did and/or no one would dare sue them. Again, may have been true for Sun, but Oracle is a different beastie
(iii) Economics - the cost of any lawsuit is chicken feed compared to the value of carving out a big position in the Mobile IP market.
Up till the Great StreetCam Debacle I would have plumped for 3, now I don't know.....