...even if it is from their own Burning Platform - the new CEO wrote a long memo today, saying Nokia was on a burning platform and had little choice but to jump into icy seas:
Over the past few months, I've shared with you what I've heard from our shareholders, operators, developers, suppliers and from you. Today, I'm going to share what I've learned and what I have come to believe.
I have learned that we are standing on a burning platform.
And, we have more than one explosion - we have multiple points of scorching heat that are fuelling a blazing fire around us.
More on all this
over here at Engadget. Given that the smarter industry observers have been saying this for at least 6 years, its no great surprise, but as always poorly navigated large companies, like large ships, have to hit icebergs before they think of changing course.
We've been fairly rude about Planet Mobile's stupi...short sightedness (our term for the the Olde Mobile industry, of which Nokia was one of the largest players) since we started writing this blog in 2006. Here is us in Jan 2007 - the article (
over here) compares 'Net with Mobile development and concludes that Time is Running Out:
So, how long has Planet Mobile got to terreform itself? Two trends one should never bet against:
(i) The 80/20 principle - the 'Net will grab the "80" - The 'Net hates an obstruction, and with WiFi, 3G card (different data deal) and VoIP my laptop is getting pretty mobile (I reckon about 80% of my being "mobile" is just sitting somewhere "else" - and if I have connectivity at that "else", I don't need really more than a cheap phone for calls in the other 20% of the time). Plus, dealing with voicemail is a real faff compared to email - much better to divert it to my PC and see it there when I want to, in the sequence I want.
(ii) Mo' Moore's Law - Yeah, yeah, I know - 1 billion more people have mobiles than PC's, and more people will access the Internet via mobiles than PCs by 2008 or whatever (what "access" means in this context is less clear) - but the reason for this is not that they prefer mobiles - its because they can afford them. The only thing keeping the current mobile internet going is that Moore's Law hasn't got laptop devices to that price point yet. I have noticed that kids drop their mobiles like hot potatoes when a PC is available. Look at the Blackberry - its just an email client, yet its stolen a whole market away. Ditto the iPod and music.
That was 2007, pre iPhone/Smartphone et al - let me bet on "mobile vs tablet" penetration by 2013.....
When the iPhone came out in 2007 Nokia made a false start to"get with it" -
quoting ourselves from 2007:
Also, seems like - as we suggested they should last week - Nokia has taken this kick in the pants to get a bit more radical...except they had even started earlier than the iPhone's release a whole few days - from their website on June 20th 2007:
Espoo, Finland - Nokia today announced that it will introduce a new company structure from January 1, 2008. The move, driven by Nokia's strategy, is aimed at creating an organization aligned with the opportunities Nokia sees for future growth, and to increase efficient ways of working across the company.
"The convergence of the mobile communications and internet industries is opening up new growth opportunities for us, both in the devices business as well as in consumer internet services and enterprise solutions. Growing consumer demand for rich, mobile experiences creates an opportunity for change....."
Could've told them that in June 2005 though........
Actually, we did tell them in 2005. I still recall sketching out the iPod's end - to end value chain to 'em in 2005 and saying "someday soon, mobile telephony will work this way".
As for Symbian, it was fairly clear that was fuc - sorry, largely obsolescent - by late 2007 -
us again:
(I reference our writings because its quick to find them, but any decent
independent observer could see the same thing at the time.)
What would we tell them now, apart from "Told Ya So". Well, in a way it would be "Ye don't want to be starting from here! More helpful perhaps would be to reflect on how IBM reformed itself under Gerstner, or Apple came back from its walk on the dire side - ie use the strategic assets it still has got and merclessly jettison those that are obsolete.
But the main thing they need to do is to re-innovate the product and end to end proposition, and - in my view anyway - the current structure and staff have proven to be unfit for purpose. Better leave 'em out the lifeboat.
Update - WSJ publishes
the following view of "what to do"
According to Zeus Kerravala, who follows the hand-held device market for research firm Yankee Group, Nokia’s best hope is to create a vibrant community of developers interested in creating apps for its Symbian operating system. But, said Mr. Kerravala, “it’s a real eight ball they’re behind right now.”
The solution, Mr. Kerravala told Digits, is to offer strong financial incentives. He suggested that Nokia offer some form of financial guarantees or run a contest with a first prize in the order of half-a-million dollars. If that sounds like a huge amount of money, Mr. Kerravala noted that Nokia is operating from a position of weakness; in order to lure developers away from Apple and Google’s respective operating systems and development environments, Nokia has to “go above and beyond what a normal developer environment would be.”
I disagree - Symbian is obsolescent now, and Nokia have consistently misunderstood the market moving to:
- end to end service drives device (Apple/iTunes)
- phone becoming increasingky like a computer (smartphone, tablet, next ?)
As I note above, I have very little confidence that the existing product crowd in Nokia could "get" this now. Also, I don't think bribing developers to build for Symbian will work, even if it was an OK OS. There are already too many apps elsewhere. If you look at the IT industry in the 80's, HP, NCR et al all had to adopt UNIX for their midrange tins and DOS for their PCs. IMO Nokia needs to do this now with Android (not Microsoft - that is too small a market share), and use their other market advantages to "stay in the game" in the short term.
