Sex, Lies and Sexy Statistics

From the Wilfully Misreading Statistics Dept:

I'm sure most people have read the statistics regarding the differing number of sex partners men and women have on average - the New York Times did a very good article on it recently:

One survey, recently reported by the federal government, concluded that men had a median of seven female sex partners. Women had a median of four male sex partners. Another study, by British researchers, stated that men had 12.7 heterosexual partners in their lifetimes and women had 6.5.

The issue, as anyone even vaguely familiar with statistics will tell you (and probably anyone who just thinks about the numbers), is that these numbers are virtually impossible statistically - or rather the "what you have to believe" beggars belief in terms of the extreme vigour of a small number of very busy women. (Or perhaps they are too busy to answer these surveys.....)

Anyway, the main point I am driving at is made in the NYT article later:

Dr. Gale added that he is not just being querulous when he raises the question of logical impossibility. The problem, he said, is that when such data are published, with no asterisk next to them saying they can’t be true, they just “reinforce the stereotypes of promiscuous males and chaste females.”

And thus

“In this way,” Dr. Gale said, “the false conclusions people draw from these surveys may have a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.”

In other words we allow ourselves to be taken in by irrational stuff because the data does not support what we want to believe.

I feel the same way with many of the statistics posted about the various Social Nets and our behaviours on them - they just don't add up. I recall thinking that with the Second Life numbers last year and then they were eventually shown to be - er - inflated. At the moment there is not enough hard data coming out of say Facebook, but having been on it awhile I have the same feeling I had with Second Life - if all these millions are coming onboard Facebook, then where are they?

Never mind the assumed valuations of a user - $3m for a company that has 2.3m "users" of a Facebook application.

My experience is that the Facebook group activity is low (messages per person) vs equivalents on say Yahoo Groups, and emails between people on Facebook is fairly minimal too. I don't see a vast increase in my pre-existing contact base week on week there either. Now it could be I'm just a Johnny No Mates, but I suspect that we are yet again seeing the Second Life Syndrome.