Slap you in the Facebook.....

We already know empirically that any one general purpose Social Net has a lifespan of about 2 years before the New Shiny One comes up (Friends Reunited begat Friendster begat MySpace begat Facebook - we have the morals of alley cats when it comes to social network infidelity).

What I wondered (not having studied it before) is how to tell when the Previous Shiny New One was starting to wobble on its perch.

The Ancient Greeks said that pride (or more accurately, hubris) goeth before a fall and the pronouncenment last week that Facebook was worth $100bn surely ranks up there.

If one were to follow Tipping Point logic, one would look for those trendsetters starting to bury Facebook rather than praise it, so this post by Dave Winer - and the kerfuffle that followed it - probably counts as the beginning of the countertrend. We agree with Dave by the way when he notes:

Why exactly do I need Facebook to get inbetween me and my address book?

I mean, I understand why they want me to tell them everyone I know, but how about letting me download a copy to my computer, so I can back it up, use it on my iPhone or Blackberry, bequeath it to my heirs, write a book about it, or give a copy to Google or Netflix or Yahoo, or you get the idea.

Of course, we've said this already (see here) but when it hits the network hub that is an A list opinion former, that has Resonance ,we suspect. It will be interesting to study this from now on.

But to me, a surer sign that things are on the slippery slide is when something is no longer taken seriously, so the announcement of HateBook - a new antisocial network - marks that moment.

And they all came together in the space of about 5 days....that must mean something too, if you are superstitious.

(disclosure - we reckon we built the first antisocial network, on Ning, c 18 months ago - GrumpyBugger if you are curious)