iPhone kicks off Mobile Web 2.0 ?

I helped my friends Tony Fish and Ajit Jaokar with their Mobile Web 2.0 book some years back, but one of the issue I had then - and now - is that unlike the Internet, Planet Mobile is a walled garden.

However there is increasing evidence that the iPhone is starting the process of tipping that over. Here is the Grauniad's Jemima Kiss quoting Stephen Fry:

"Whatever your view on Apple's new instant icon, you will not be able to deny that it has already changed forever what was already a colossal market.

"There was pre-iPhone and there will be post-iPhone. All the competitors will have to come up with something better. I'm no red in tooth and claw capitalist, but actually, I can't think this example of mercantile evolution-through-competition is so very bad."

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There was also a good article from the New York Times on the subject here:

the question many are asking is why the tension now, in contrast to, say, six months ago? The catalysts are threefold, said Mr. Weiden: the proliferation of new technologically advanced mobile phones, greater bandwidth and increased competition. But mainstream consumers too are being conditioned to expect more, particularly after the debut of the iPhone which offers easy-to-use Web browsing, Wi-Fi capabilities and high-quality video.

Indeed, Shahid Khan, a partner at the IBB Consulting Group in Princeton Junction, N.J., said he believes wireless networks will go the way of the Internet, where closed communities like AOL once dominated, then later morphed into hybrids. Now services like AOL co-exist, albeit in a less powerful state, alongside open networks.

We'd agree with that...though we've called the inflection point before, and like the date for takeoff of mobile multimedia, it always seems to be "next year" when it all happens. As we wrote back when the iPhone came out:

The iPhone is the start of a major "out of bounds" competitive push that may define a de facto standard set, and WiFi should concentrate the mind.......but to really make Planet Mobile come onboard to the Open Net fast will probably require some form of "Deus ex Machina" play to define a de Jure set of approaches

That Deus ex Machina is what we are looking for, the in AOL speak that was the giant sidesweep which was the Mosaic fuelled Web. In this case we suspect it will be the WiFi fuelled iPhone (and similar devices) as the clamour for decent internet connectivity on mobile devices grows, but there has to be some factor that triggers the tipping point.

We don't know what it is yet, but suspect that it will be something that:

- Makes it clear that the operator's technical model is obsolete (an open standard replacing closed for eg)
- Destroys the subscription model (ie probably a free / near free service)
- Allows people to create and consume mobile content in new and novel ways

If I was a betting man I'd plumb for an easily navigable VoIP / Multimedia service, but it could just be as simple as web browsing working properly on mobile for the first time and accessing the Web without a hassle.