Wednesday, April 30. 2008So thats what happened to Gopher......Trackbacks
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I don't ever remember paying for Gopher, so that is a new one on me!
Anyway... With regards to the rate of change and adoption, I remember a graph I used in my Cisco days that compared adoption rates to saturation of telephone, radio, TV, video recorders and the Internet. The big take away was that we have got faster and faster at adopting new technology. There is still latency in the system (we only grow up and have kids at the same rate, if not slower, that we used to), but much of the latency in developing and propagating new technologies was around the speed of transport and communication. That has changed massively. Was that something that showed up in your study, or is it not a big effect yet? Yes, I did use that adoption curve - see this huge one here from the New York Times by the way.
http://broadstuff.com/archives/737-Accelerating-Adoption-Curves.html The other point I'd make is that the tech development when you look back comes in a series of overlapping waves. Taking the ships for example - First came iron hulls, then steam, then better propellers, then better steam engines, then steel etc etc. Or in our case first came the home PC, then the 'Net, then Web, then Broadband....it's not nearly over yet. But that is the rate of the adoption of the technology itself. More germane is your second point, ie the latency - or the corollary, the impact of the technology is it sets other things in motion. Faster, bigger, more reliable ships set in motion a whole lot of economic, social, and political changes. Very nice. It is interesting that IT isn't alone in the "today, I will fix what I broke yesterday" cycle - eg your ship example, or automatic washer followed by dryer.
It is a complex new world! Just that much of it isn't that new |
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