Monday, May 14. 2012Facebook as a predictor of trends?
Interesting article in the NYT "Bits" section about Facebook having an inside track on emerging trends:
When the company saw a staggering spike of Instagram photos flowing into Facebook, it knew it had to act quickly. It bought the photo service for $1 billion before Twitter or Google could make a move. Now this looks partly like an "honest, it isn't a bubbletime thing" justification of the Instagram purchase, but it is true that Facebook will see emerging trends on its ecosystem first, and to an extent can drive success: Facebook has so much power online that they have the ability to buy something at a low price and then make it go high by directing traffic accordingly,” said Jonathan Zittrain, a professor at Harvard Law School and a co-founder of the Berkman Center for Internet and Society. “Sociologically, this is called the Matthew effect, where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.” (He notes that the term comes from a line in the Gospel of Matthew.) In other words, Facebook can create its future. But that is true of Google search as well, so no doubt we will soon have an army of white and black (and other colour) hatted Facebook Engine Optimisers. But, as Google found, with great power comes great legislative probing: Facebook may need to worry that competitors don’t see evidence that it uses its power unfairly. Eric Talley, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said that although Facebook could be accused of market manipulation or anticompetitive practices, the company could defend itself by saying that others monitored the same data and that Facebook simply did the job better. Also, I think there is something that the article didn't cover - by definition, Facebook sees the world through a Facebook coloured lens. And just as a google coloured lens didn't (and still can't) clearly see social networking, a Facebook coloured lens won't see the New new things that do not use a Facebook style ecosystem. Friday, September 23. 2011HP Still in search of excellence?
A few years ago we collaborated in a piece of work for NESTA on the extraordinary innovation that US companies formed in the Depression showed. It seems that being born and surviving in that cauldron gave them an extraordinary resilience. Hewlett Packard (HP) was one of them, and was mentioned (along with quite a few of the other Depression era companies) in the 1982 book In Search of Excellence. Sadly along with many others, inclusion in that book was a sort of death knell.
HP has had a tough last 15 years or so, and has had a succession of unfortunate CEO choices. Now its just been confirmed that Meg Whitman (ex eBay) is the new CEO - AllThingsD: The board of HP, which has had its own series of blunders in recent years, is hoping Whitman can help turn that around, especially as its competitors — such as Oracle, IBM and others — increase the pressure. Good luck....she will certainly need it! Will this end a run of unfortunate CE choices? I'm not particulalrly optimistic as apart from her (in)experience in this space, this is a long mismanagede company in a decining industry, to pull out of and it seems to me that the HP board - which surely must be seen by now as a major liability - is still in situ. Still, if a biscuit hustler* could pull IBM around, there is hope for HP. *I haven't done any research on this, but I wonder if there is a higher success rate for bringing in CEOs from outsuide the industry - I have certainly found it works well at middle and senior management level. Friday, August 26. 2011Steve 2.0
Steve Jobs resigned today as Apple CEO,for a new position as chairman. He said that:
Stock markets have fallen, hair has been rent, and TechWorld is in mourning as if he had already died. He is ill, but news of his death is somewhat exagerrated. And senior guys move on,it happens.So why the sturmand drang? I think MG Siegler at TechCrunch is right when he says:
And that was Steve Jobs' genius. Computer OS User Experience was crap until the Mac. Internet Mobile experience was crap until the iPhone. Tablets were crap until the iPad (though let us not forget that There Comes A Time in technology - the Newton was hardly a soaraway success) That is what Apple needs to continue - that constant, fanatical, putting the customer first. And that is all that anyone else needs to to do match Apple. The time has never been better to take them on. Doing it, of course, in large risk-averse cover-my-arse corporate heirarchies is another matter altogether. Just ask Nokia. And that is why the only position you can make the change from, that you can knock all the heads together from, is the top job. Wednesday, August 24. 2011Hedonic Market Buzz in a Social Media WorldPre-Hedonic Buzz Marketing makes early demand seem far more dramatic (Courtesy Cass Business School) Interesting observation in the NYT re the increasng speed of killing one's mistakes: Seven weeks after it was put on sale, Hewlett-Packard killed its TouchPad tablet, the company’s competitor to Apple’s iPad. Hewlett-Packard killed the TouchPad after 48 days, cut the price and created a buying frenzy. This is a change from a few years ago and is apparently due to Apple: When Microsoft released the Xbox 360 in 2005, there were widespread reliability issues and the console faced serious competition from the Nintendo Wii, yet the company stayed the course, and now the Xbox is one of the best-selling video game consoles of all time. That kind of tenacity seems to be in diminishing supply. Are other companies misreading the game plan though,and thus making wrong decisions? When we did the TEDxTuttle II session, Dr Caroline Wierz of Cass Business School explained that Apple spends a lot of time and effort winding up the market before any launch, so there is a pent-up demand at product release and thus the product appears to achieve its market penetration levels very fast (Pre-Hedonic Buzz marketing, I believe it is called) and thus makes the competition think the game is over. Halwa also thinks Social Media has exacerbated the speed of the post-launch feedback loop: The crush of tech bloggers and Twitter-using early adopters who chronicle every bit of news — good and bad — about new phones and tablets also raises the stakes around how well new products perform in the marketplace. However, this is not necessarily all good news- Dr Wierz went on to talk about how Social Media was probably having a measurable impact on movie success on the first weekend of release as early moviegoers gave the thumbs up - and down - for later attendees. We think there is something in this - if it is true for movies, why not for consumer tech too? This also ties in with other work we have done recently, where we have found that the reputation for customer service for existing customers - now that it is all over the web - increasingly impacts the buying decision of new customers. We think its the same dynamic in operation here. So Apple's real skillis not just the Pre Hedonic Buzz, but also making products that people love to have without a lot of iteration. Thursday, April 14. 2011Twitter lesson - Does The Team make a company succeed?
That sweet, simple story of Twitter's founding always seemed to me unlikely (having watched Boardroom egos for 15 years or so) so it was with no great surprise (but much relish) that I read about The Real Story yesterday - it was quite entertaining, but it also followed a quite familiar model:
Much more normal then - but it does sort of confound the classic VC mantra that The Team is the Big Thing - Fortune:
In this case, the combination of right product, right market, right time has totally trumped Founder fallout. Fortune's view is that the service is slowing down now, and they need some grown up managers:
And yet, and yet - it continues to grow outside teh US, there is still nothing quite like it flexibility wise and its got a lot of runway left to figure oyut its next move - despite measuring management time in revolutions per minute.... maybe its the exception that proves the rule of management team uber alles, but to me its a damn good indication that if the mousetrap truly is better, the world will beat a path to the door. The story is a salutary lesson for any wannabee startup CEO, should be required reading after The Prince Saturday, April 9. 2011Google takes a step in the right direction
We wrote the following in January about how Google should start to fix itself:
Well! Since then Eric Schmidt has been de-ranked, and now the shake-up that Larry Page is putting Google through has the potential to do just these things - it looks like he is shaking up the senior management, and has had the b*lls to make possibly unpopular changes - and is moving to more independent units. I just hope that he also culls the weasels. I even think the bonus on hitting Social targets is a good play (others do not), in that in large organisations what you don't reward doesn't get done, and so this is a "strong" tell in game theory - it's not just a "we will support social" corporate statement, it has an "if you don't there are penalties" element. It makes it harder for those who would block it to gain traction and helps the enthusiasts/change agents. The hard thing now is to re-integrate the business after all the changes - a good organisation change can free up a lot of energy if it gets enough of the drones out, a bad one causes chaos. So far my Googlesources are uncertain, but the next few weeks will be key. Friday, April 8. 2011Larry Page's "Social Media Tidal Wave" Memo of 1995
Google is mandating its people "get" social and is basing a % of their bonus on it*. For the young 'uns, and those with faulty memories, here is an excerpt of Bill Gates' "Internet Tidal Wave" memo of 1995 (the date at which Microsoft de facto declared it was Yesterday's Man - and its products improved markedly
The Internet Today etc etc (by the way, Gates still seems prescient today - I see that Facebook investor Accel is investing in Hollwood because Facebook is "going to be big" in movies) Anyway, you can read the complete Gates' Memo of 1995 over here at Wired, and watch history repeating itself in glorious Web-O-Vision. *Given Google's past performance it may just be a way of paying lower bonusses Tuesday, March 22. 2011Apple, Facebook and Tick-Through Revenue in the Post-PC World
App-stores have broken the online payments psychology. Where free apps once lead the charge, commercial apps are finishing it. Users now expect to pay and crucially, want to pay for a higher quality experience. With a few notable exceptions, free apps are bombing whereas, apps which charge a reasonable price are flying high. They are the keepers.
![]() That’s in the app-space but it can surely only be a matter of time before the same trend crosses over into the content and news space. Meanwhile, as content publishers are bleeding money the free web remains a big problem for the publishing business. Undoubtedly, for those who know how to exploit it, it is becoming an opportunity. But exploiting the opportunity will mean knowing how to generate not click-through but tick-through (transaction click-through - e.g. a transaction occurring as soon as a link is clicked, or one quick acknowledgement click after). The App Store has shown, once there is a sizeable community able to pay for access to content and a system supporting micro-transactions, the user will pay. Micro-payments have, of course, been a solution sought for so long, now they are actually starting to happen the phrase has gone out of fashion. The secret to the new content marketing strategies will be, like for native-apps, to make the charge low-enough and the quality of the experience high enough. And that of course, is the major hole that can now be plugged by the confluence of web, tablet, app and HTML5. The opportunity for the incumbent old media content business is to leverage scale to increase production value beyond that which the smaller player can hope to achieve. Of course, just as there has always been academic research, and so too there has always been a sophisticated early adopter audience happily and diligently curating their own news through twitter and who will want little else. But the commerce-repellant power of free content via self-curation through self-configured “friends” feeds is, IMHO, greatly overstated. Personal social news feeds will remain hugely important and will of course continue to provide a very important channel into free content but early adopters are by nature more analytical, thoughtful and dynamic than the majority. Much of the rest of the world wants simply to hang-out online with friends and get a bit of entertainment after work and for these users tick-through will naturally become an important portion of consumption. As Zuckerberg already knows, there is value in exclusivity and once content is available behind an easy micropayment, many many friends will be all too eager to cough-up just to be in the know, stay in the club and share the super-produced experience. Whoever can deliver content, engage and entertain the audience, will succeed. The holly grail will be to establish a brand with sufficient pull and low-enough prices the user will tick-through, along with the community of friends, as easily as sending a text. The adroit marketeer will lead regular tickers to ultra-easy to join subscription packages. We can expect to see many new high-production value content properties emerge, supplementing free to access content with highly produced lead-ins to the paid for content. Of course, a potential tick-through payments facilitator with enough stored-energy to dwarf even iTunes in this brave new world is Facebook. Indeed, stopping Facebook is, in my view, the primary driver behind the structure of Apple’s 30% content revenue cut. All the time Apple are king of the micro-payment facilitator hill, they can’t be ignored and the universal price requirement means they can’t be under-cut. Currently the big four facilitators are:
And there are some outside bets as well:
In my judgement the most important sources of tick-through generation (and I’m willing to bet increasingly, in the content business, little else will count) are in order of importance:
I have put web-search in third place and don’t include advertising at all due to a combination of fact and logic. Social is now top in hits. Search implies people have something to find, but as old style web-time gets transformed further into entertainment and social time we used to spend exclusively in front of the TV and with friends, the known “branded content” hub will become increasingly the site of first recourse. From the tick-through standpoint, content hubs will triumph (poor Yahoo! getting on the party-boat departing 13 years before the time on the invite). Advertising doesn’t figure because advertising click-through is a tiny fraction of clicks from social referral, curated content and search results and so as a source of tick-through generation will hardly count (though paid positioning in a content hubs will count - so perhaps we should call it “new advertising”). As a final thought, Apple, by implementing their 30% rule, have ensured a vicious competition for exclusive content is bound to break-out. Exclusive content will be hot property desirable for its ability to draw users onto alternative micro-payment facilities and hand over the details on their plastic. Paul Lancefield on Twitter Sunday, March 13. 2011Google is (or is not) launching Yet Another Social Network.
It is - RWW:
We believe that Google will preview a major new social service called Google Circles at South by Southwest Interactive today. Update: Google has now officially denied that Circles will launch here, but not that it exists. Others, including Tim O'Reilly, have also now confirmed that they've seen it and that it's awesome. If what we've heard is correct, the service will offer photo, video and status message sharing. Everything users share on Circles will be shared only with the most appropriate circle of social contacts in their lives, not with all your contacts in bulk. Circles may be shown off at an event co-hosted tonight by the ACLU, an organization focused on privacy and the liberties it affords. It may not be a big public launch yet, but it's clear that this is a major product in the works at the very least. Please see below the fold for what I hope will be the final update on this for now. Oh No it's Not - AllthingsD: After a report emerged this morning of a new social network focused on nuanced sharing called Google Circles, the company said it was not launching anything this week at the high-profile South by Southwest Interactive event in Austin, Texas. Moreover, such a product is not even under development, according to the people supposedly developing it. Google’s Chris Messina, who had been pegged as one of the leaders of Circles, told me today in an interview that he “didn’t know what [the story] was talking about.” This sequence of events makes me think something is in the wind (and someone let a bit too much cat out) - and heck, why not, given the Social Bubblenomics at the moment - all Google has to do is launch a social network that doesn't actually suck and get some traction and I reckon their valuation will see quite the disproportionate rise. Also, it's an interesting time to launch against Facebook (and Twitter) as they are both becoming ever more intrusive on their communities to make profits whereas Google could probably fund a fairly humane SocNet for quite a while. To a large extent the Facebook et al bandwaggons depend on getting a red hot IPO story. Not so easy if the Big G is launching against you....sorta like Microsoft launching IE before Netscape IPO'd. Some people do know Santayana's law..... "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" Monday, January 10. 2011Stress Testing Strategy
McKinsey on "10 ways to stress test your strategy" - which McKinsey says very few companies get much more than 4/10. Below are quick summaris plus my commments:
Test 1: Will your strategy beat the market? All companies operate in markets surrounded by customers, suppliers, competitors, substitutes, and potential entrants, all seeking to advance their own positions. That process, unimpeded, inexorably drives economic surplus—the gap between the return a company earns and its cost of capital—toward zero. One of my major criticisms of so much "Mangaement Consulting" I have seen is that it is static, ie it recommends company A takes action X - and doesn't consider what the competition will do in response. Test 2: Does your strategy tap a true source of advantage? Know your competitive advantage, and you’ve answered the question of why you make money (and vice versa). Competitive advantage stems from two sources of scarcity: positional advantages and special capabilities. Positional advantages are rooted in structurally attractive markets. By definition, such advantages favor incumbents: they create an asymmetry between those inside and those outside high walls. Special capabilities, the second source of competitive advantage, are scarce resources whose possession confers unique benefits. Can't disagree with this - my observation is that most companies find it politically very difficult to look at these topics in any unbiassed way, and tend to overestimate ther advantages Test 3: Is your strategy granular about where to compete? The need to beat the market begs the question of which market. Research shows that the unit of analysis used in determining strategy (essentially, the degree to which a market is segmented) significantly influences resource allocation and thus the likelihood of success: dividing the same businesses in different ways leads to strikingly different capital allocations. This is a fundamental tenet of our approach - break the market into smaller subsets and understand those - but so many companies tend to look at the market in very simplistic ways Test 4: Does your strategy put you ahead of trends? The emergence of new trends is the norm. But many strategies place too much weight on the continuation of the status quo because they extrapolate from the past three to five years, a time frame too brief to capture the true violence of market forces. Add to this that very few test for scenarios that look at alternative futures - I am not taiking about "Black Swans" (very large, rare events) but just alternative but very possble trends. Test 5: Does your strategy rest on privileged insights? Data today can be cheap, accessible, and easily assembled into detailed analyses that leave executives with the comfortable feeling of possessing an informed strategy. But much of this is noise and most of it is widely available to rivals. Furthermore, routinely analyzing readily available data diverts attention from where insight-creating advantage lies: in the weak signals buried in the noise. True, but the problem with scratching over data for weak signals is that you can see so many of them. This is where scenarios have a big impact, especially if one can modekl the industry value chain and understand where the big levers/big dislocations lie - ie it is better to search for weak signals already knowing where the real sensitivities are. Interestingly, they found that: .....only 14 percent of surveyed executives placed novel insights among the top three strategic influencers of financial performance. One likely explanation: the widespread availability of information and adoption of sophisticated strategy frameworks creates an impression that “everyone knows what we know and is probably analyzing the data in the same ways that we are.” The danger is obvious: if strategists question their ability to generate novel insights, they are less likely to reach for the relative advantages that are most likely to differentiate them from competitors. Test 6: Does your strategy embrace uncertainty? A central challenge of strategy is that we have to make choices now, but the payoffs occur in a future environment we cannot fully know or control. A critical step in embracing uncertainty is to try to characterize exactly what variety of it you face—a surprisingly rare activity at many companies. Our work over the years has emphasized four levels of uncertainty. Level one offers a reasonably clear view of the future: a range of outcomes tight enough to support a firm decision. At level two, there are a number of identifiable outcomes for which a company should prepare. At level three, the possible outcomes are represented not by a set of points but by a range that can be understood as a probability distribution. Level four features total ambiguity, where even the distribution of outcomes is unknown. My experience of most companies' strategies is the opposite - they embrace overoptimistic certainty, and to try and introduce any form of grey is politically unacceptable. Signing up to "the numbers" is all important. Test 7: Does your strategy balance commitment and flexibility? Commitment and flexibility exist in inverse proportion to each other: the greater the commitment you make, the less flexibility remains. This tension is one of the core challenges of strategy. Indeed, strategy can be expressed as making the right trade-offs over time between commitment and flexibility. The important thing here is to look at option theory, and also to understand which decisons are easily reversible. Test 8: Is your strategy contaminated by bias? It’s possible to believe honestly that you have a market-beating strategy when, in fact, you don’t. Sometimes, that’s because forces beyond your control change. But in other cases, the cause is unintentional fuzzy thinking. Behavioral economists have identified many characteristics of the brain that are often strengths in our broader, personal environment but that can work against us in the world of business decision making. The worst offenders include overoptimism (our tendency to hope for the best and believe too much in our own forecasts and abilities), anchoring (tying our valuation of something to an arbitrary reference point), loss aversion (putting too much emphasis on avoiding downsides and so eschewing risks worth taking), the confirmation bias (overweighting information that validates our opinions), herding (taking comfort in following the crowd), and the champion bias (assigning to an idea merit that’s based on the person proposing it). One could write an essay on corporate overoptimism, it's not just behavioural science, there is a dynamic, an arms race of "more toadying than thou", that drives a continuously reinforcing cycle of optimism in so many companies Test 9: Is there conviction to act on your strategy? This test and the one that follows aren’t strictly about the strategy itself but about the investment you’ve made in implementing it—a distinction that in our experience quickly becomes meaningless because the two, inevitably, become intertwined. Many good strategies fall short in implementation because of an absence of conviction in the organization, particularly among the top team, where just one or two nonbelievers can strangle strategic change at birth. Or, more typically, enough means are not allocated to the right people to ensure that the Ends are accomplished Test 10: Have you translated your strategy into an action plan? In implementing any new strategy, it’s imperative to define clearly what you are moving from and where you are moving to with respect to your company’s business model, organization, and capabilities. Develop a detailed view of the shifts required to make the move, and ensure that processes and mechanisms, for which individual executives must be accountable, are in place to effect the changes. Quite simply, this is an action plan. Everyone needs to know what to do. Be sure that each major “from–to shift” is matched with the energy to make it happen. And since the totality of the change often represents a major organizational transformation, make sure you and your senior team are drawing on the large body of research and experience offering solid advice on change management—a topic beyond the scope of this article! And ensure that the systems, measurements and rewards incentivise people - so often these things are treated as independent of (and become antithetical to) the change that is desired.
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