Democracy, Statistics and Proportional Representation.

Now the UK new voting mechanism referendum is over, and the triumphant crowing (and dejected defensiveness likewise) has begun, I couldn't help but be struck by the role of the c 33% number in the 2 elections - in one, c33% is triumphant victory and in the other c 33% is total defeat.

What do you need to put a party in power?:

Tories got 47% of the seats in Parliament from 36% of the votes, from a 65% voter turnout.

Labour got 40% of seats from 29% of the vote

Liberal Democrats got 9% of the seats on 23% of the votes

This Tory win on 36% of the total vote is called "The Will of the people"


What do you need to "comprehensively defeat" a proposal to reform the above system

No we don't want it - 68% of a 42% voter turnout

Yes we want it - 32%

This Massive AV defeat on 32% of the vote is called "The Will Of The People"

See the problem?

Then look at the reducing voter turnout since 1945 (chart above), couple that with the increasing feeling that "my vote doesn't count, so why bother* " ( partly a reason for increasing Welsh and Scottish desires for autonomy ) and that the areas of the UK that voted for voting reform are Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton and many of the Inner London boroughs - the "Creative Class" capitals of England - and you start to see why the representational vote issue won't go away anytime soon.

*For example Tories on 54% of vote capture 83% of seats in Central Bedfordshire region