The UK mobile market has been irrational - sorry, hypercompetitive - for years 4 major players each had about a fifth of the market and a plethora of others vying for the rest. It is, I hasten to add, the only market on the planet like this - all others resolve into 2 or 3 main players and a babble of noise at the edges. However, it looks like someone
finally is going to fall off the leaky boat. Notes the FT:
Vodafone is considering an offer to buy T-Mobile UK in an audacious move that would have huge repercussions for the British mobile phone market.
The world’s largest mobile operator by revenue is looking at the case for acquiring T-Mobile UK, which has an estimated enterprise value of €3bn-€4bn ($4.2bn-$5.6bn) – even though any transaction runs the risk of being blocked by regulators.
.....
Currently, O2 , the largest UK mobile operator owned by Spain’s Telefónica, has a market share of about 27 per cent.
Vodafone has 25 per cent, France Telecom’s Orange 22 per cent, T-Mobile 15 per cent, and 3, the operator owned by Hutchison Whampoa, 8 per cent.
I doubt the regulators would block it, given the market would then look more like any others with a 40%, a 27% and a 22% player.
More to the point, though is what will Telefonica/O2 and France Telecom/Orange do, as this would give Voda a strategic lead and cement them into first place, usually the best place to be in long term, commoditised mature markets. Also, will this finally give 3 the chance to exit with a quick sale and some face, as they could be a nice little number up for auction?
As an aside, it always fascinates me that companies usually get rid of stuff they don't want at the crunch in a market rather than at its top (see
Microsoft below). It was cleat T-Mobile was in trouble 3 years ago at least, but it would have fetched a better price then.....