Czech Election - Our predictive model correct(ish) again

Although we didn't track the Czech Election with the full system (unlike these 5), we have mapped it to our OECD political predictive model which we built after the Norwegian and Dutch elections. It states that:

1, The main Centre-Right party moves considerably more Right, adopting quite a few of the Far-Right policies and narratives. This ploy may lose some of its more centrist supporters (to who though?) but it prevents the Far Right from taking far more right wing supporters. If it doesn't (Germany) then the Far Right takes a larger share

2. The Centre-Left is decimated, their various "Deplorables" classes - traditional working class voters - go both left and right. This leads to a rise in the Far-Left numbers. The hard to predict move is the Centre left voters who move rightwards, as there is no natural home for them at the moment, and they seem to scatter depending on local conditions.

So far it's The Czech Election mapped to this, with one "known" exception we've seen before (the "French Disconnection"):

- Parties closer to EU liberal establishment values were left massively depleted. The ruling centre-left Social Democrats (CSSD), saw its share of the vote tumble to become the sixth-largest party.

- Far-right and anti-establishment groups made gains in the election. Far Right SPD support was up to 10.6%, and The Pirates will make their debut in parliament with 10.8% seats. The centre-right Civic Democrats second with 11% each.

- But, as with Macron in France. a populist centreist party, ANO (Yes) collected a share of almost 30%. Our model predicts the Centre left moves right and left, but in most other countries there has not been an easy centre-right choice - except France with a populist centre-ist, and now the Czech Republic.

And as elsewhere, more parties with a wider range on the polltical spectrum are in the parliament, making it harder to put together larger majority coalition.

Resulting setup is:

ANO (Yes): 29.6% +11%
Civic Democratic Party: 11.3% +4%
The Czech Pirate Party: 10.8% +8%
Freedom and Free Democracy party (SPD) : 10.6% New Entrant +10.6%
Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM): 7.8% -7%
Social Democrats (CSSD): 7.3% -13%
KDU-CSR (Christian Democrats) 5.8% -1%
TOP-09 (Liberal) 5.3% -7%

More is certainly to come, as the EU still refuses to shift it's position. As mathematical historian Peter Turchin points out "the governing elites of the EU behave as though they all believe these disintegrative trends that I and others have written about are just a "blip". The more they believe that, we predict the less it will be.